Texas has long been a solid Republican stronghold. The state has not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994 and has supported every Republican presidential candidate since 1980. Yet new polls suggest this long streak may be about to end. Ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, signs point to a possible political change that could turn parts of Texas, or even the whole state, blue.
Analysts largely credit the shift to reactions against President Donald Trump’s policies. His strict immigration measures and the growing economic pressure on working families appear to have driven many voters away from the Republican side. In 2024, Hispanic voters in Texas supported Trump by about 10 points. That support has now reversed in a striking way.
A recent poll by the Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision showed Hispanic voters backing Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race by 63 percent to 30 percent. In the governor’s race, the same group favored Democrat Gina Hinojosa over Governor Greg Abbott by 60 percent to 33 percent. Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters stood at only 33 percent, and nearly two-thirds said they were less likely to support any candidate who backs his deportation plans.
The Senate race has become especially competitive. Talarico leads Paxton by a slim margin in the RealClearPolling average, 49 percent to 46.5 percent. A New York Times/Siena poll gave him a clearer edge of 50 percent to 43 percent, though one other survey showed the candidates tied.
Governor Abbott also faces unexpected pressure. Despite a massive financial advantage, with more than 67 million dollars still in his campaign account, he leads Hinojosa by only 2.3 points in the RealClearPolling average. Some recent polls even place Hinojosa slightly ahead.
Turnout will decide the outcome. Hispanic voters and younger citizens have often stayed home in larger numbers during midterms. If they show up in strong numbers this time, Texas could elect Democrats to major statewide offices for the first time in nearly three decades.
Prediction markets reflect the uncertainty and excitement. Nearly 479 million dollars has already been traded on major election outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket. The two Texas races alone attracted more than 111 million dollars in betting activity. Market prices currently lean toward Democratic wins in both contests, though these figures represent trader expectations rather than actual votes.
Voters will make the final decision on Tuesday. The results could reshape Texas politics and send a powerful message about the direction of the country.
